MIIT Announces 2008-2011 Telecom Market Predictions
World Telecommunications, 10/30/08
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's (MIIT) China Academy of Telecommunication Research (CATR) recently released its 'Assessment of Potential Development in China's Telecommunications Industry, 2008-2011.' The assessment predicts:
Telecom Revenues: Telecom revenues for 2008 could grow to approximately RMB 813.2 bln.
Mobile: The number of mobile users will grow by more than 84 mln within 2008, reaching 632 mln. By 2011, this figure will be approaching 800 mln. After the issuance of 3G licenses, 3G users could number 130 mln by 2011.
Fixed-line: Fixed-line phone users will decrease by 17 mln in 2008, dropping to 344 mln. By 2011, this figure will have dropped below 300 mln.
PHS: Between 2008 and 2011, the number of PHS users could drop by an average of more than 16 mln users per year.
Broadband: xDSL users could increase by more than 16.2 mln in 2008, reaching a total of 68.23 mln. From 2008 to 2011, xDSL users will increase by an average of 16.3 mln users per year, totaling more than 100 mln by 2010. This year there will be approximately 600,000 FTTH users; by 2011, this could grow to 8 mln.
VAS: In 2008, personal value-added services (VAS) will have a market scale of 150 bln, or 81% of the value-added services market. Between 2008 and 2011, this could increase by 16.7 bln a year on average, surpassing RMB 180 bln in 2011, at which time the overall revenues of the value-added services market could reach approximately RMB 252 bln.
Editor's Note: For current Chinese telecom market statistics, please see "MIIT Announces August 2008 Statistics", MD 10/06/08 issue.
Keywords: fixed-line subscribers broadband subscribers DSL 3G CATR FTTH MIIT statistics telecom VAS fiber optics mobile subscribers PHS subscribers
Sending
